The decade from roughly 2010-2020 was an unprecedented tech boom, where managers rose on the back of operational excellence. Smart, hard working people, climbed the ranks by keeping their trains running and dashboards green.
But that party is over.
Today, AI is reshaping everything: how we build, how we lead, how we compete. Speed matters more than scale. Scrappiness beats structure. Vision trumps process.
Having led through previous platform shifts — from mainframe to client-server, to the Internet, to mobile, to crypto — I’ve seen this movie before. The winners adapt. The rest manage themselves into irrelevance.
We’re in another such moment now. And it demands a different generation of leaders.
Success in the ZIRP Era
ZIRP (short for Zero Interest Rate Phenomena), was an era of cheap money, infinite growth, and long patience. Managerial success was defined by:
- Optimize process, avoid risk
- Ride tailwinds to hit your numbers
- Sell your success internally
- Get more headcount
- Rinse & repeat
Faced with a new problem or threat, the default response was:
Let’s hire X engineers, Y PMs, and Z designers, and allocate $$$ opex for go-to-market and legal
No real thesis, it was staffing as strategy.
The best managers weren’t solving problems, they were optimizing spreadsheets and hosting happy hours. And in that era, it actually worked. When the mandate was to grow at all costs, and when capital markets subsidized inefficiency, headcount was the currency of success.
But not anymore.
Elon and ChatGPT created the Leverage Era
The flashpoint moment was October 22, 2022 when Elon walked into Twitter HQ carrying the sink. Theatrics aside, it was a clear signal to the capital markets that tech could run leaner…much leaner. Headcount was no longer the currency of growth.
A month later (November 30, 2022), OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public. A tangible tool that showed everyone what leverage looked like.
Together these sparked a new era, defined by:
- Cost discipline replacing budget sprawl
- Talent density as smaller teams deliver outsized impact
- AI as leverage, no longer a concept
In this Leverage Era, the constraint isn’t capital: it’s clarity.
The companies that win won’t be the ones with the most people. They’ll be the ones with the strongest bets.
The old playbook of lobbying for headcount isn’t just obsolete, and it’s actively harmful. It slows velocity, dilutes accountability, and blocks innovation.
Succeeding in the Leverage Era
So we now have a stark gap: leaders who trained on the ZIRP playbook, struggling to adapt to the Leverage Era. To thrive, they must unlearn before they relearn. That shift looks like this:
| Old Model | New Model |
|---|---|
| Hire a team to solve it | Build a thesis to test it |
| Manage inputs (headcount, spend) | Drive outcomes (user value, insight velocity) |
| Rely on process | Bet with conviction & clarity |
| Optimize KPIs | Reframe the game |
Today’s best leaders combine:
- Strategic clarity: Defining the playbook, not waiting for it
- Risk tolerance: Defaulting to progress, not process
- Technical fluency: Understanding the tools and systems, and actively using them
Your New Playbook: The 5 A’s
If you’re leading in the Leverage Era, this is the mindset shift. Here’s the new playbook I give to my teams to build with speed, ownership, and impact:
1. Agency
Own it. Don’t wait for permission or a perfect spec. Drive action. Solve problems proactively. Initiative isn’t optional, it’s table stakes.
2. Agility
Move fast. Prioritize progress over perfection. Test early, learn quickly, and pivot when needed. Quarter-long roadmaps are dead. Clarity comes from action.
3. Astonishment
Go beyond. Anticipate needs. Delight users and partners by shipping what they didn’t even know to ask for. Great products don’t just check boxes, they surprise & delight.
4. Analytics
Lead with data. Use numbers to inform, not paralyze. Blend quantitative rigor with experience & intuition. Know when to zoom in, and when to step back.
5. Accelerate (with AI)
Embrace AI as leverage. Automate the boring. Augment the creative. Integrate AI into daily workflows. Apply it to both your “product”, as well as your “productivity”.
Final Word: Lead the Leap
The ZIRP Era rewarded safe execution. The Leverage Era rewards bold clarity.
The next decade will be shaped by leaders who unlearn ZIRP practices, and lead forward by:
- Thinking in systems
- Operating with urgency
- Using leverage, not labor
That shift won’t come from HR trainings or offsites. It starts in the mirror.
The future no longer belongs to spreadsheet managers. It will be led by builders with clarity, conviction, urgency, and taste.